UFC on Fox: Weidman vs. Gastelum

Sport: MMA
Promotion: UFC
Date: July 22, 2017
Venue: Nassau Coliseum
City: Long Island, New York, United States
Broadcast:
Straight Bet

Chris Weidman (+140)

Chris Weidman vs. Kelvin Gastelum

Breakdown

Chris Weidman vs. Kelvin Gastelum

I think Weidman should be a -170 betting favorite heading into this five-round middleweight main event so I definitely see value in him at his current offering price tag of +140. Weidman is a premiere pressure fighter who steadily works his way into the pocket. Once he grabs a hold of you, his ground control is pretty good and he has a tight head-pressure game, and can work ferocious ground and pound. He will have a size advantage over Gastelum, including a seven-inch reach edge. The big difference in recent years has been his durability but I am expecting improved conditioning from Weidman and think he will have enough in the tank for five full rounds of action. I suspect Weidman comes out with a good gameplan and win this fight inside the distance. I see this as being Gastelum’s first real test at middleweight, and I don’t think he pass the test. 

 

Stake: 5%

Prediction

Chris Weidman vs. Kelvin Gastelum
+140 Odds -170
41.7% Market % 63.0%
70.00% Bet on Combat % 30.00%
+28.3% Inefficiency % -33.0%
Chris Weidman - Straight Bet
Odds:+140
Risk:$10000.00
To Win:$14000.00
Outcome:Win

Outcome:

Chris Weidman defeats Kelvin Gastelum via Submission (arm-triangle choke) at 3:46 of round 3.

This fight play out just the way I had anticipated. While the majority of the betting public counted out Chris Weidman, I was confident that he would bounce back and win this fight.

Win

Straight Bet

Jeremy Kennedy (-225)

Kyle Bochniak vs. Jeremy Kennedy

Breakdown

Kyle Bochniak vs. Jeremy Kennedy

Stake: 5%

Prediction

Kyle Bochniak vs. Jeremy Kennedy
+175 Odds -225
36.4% Market % 69.2%
25.00% Bet on Combat % 75.00%
-11.4% Inefficiency % +5.8%
Jeremy Kennedy - Straight Bet
Odds:-225
Risk:$10000.00
To Win:$4444.44
Outcome:Win

Outcome:

Jeremy Kennedy defeats Kyle Bochniak via Decision (unanimous) (30-27, 30-27, 29-28).

Win

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