UFC on Fox: Weidman vs. Gastelum
| Sport: | MMA |
| Promotion: | UFC |
| Date: | July 22, 2017 |
| Venue: | Nassau Coliseum |
| City: | Long Island, New York, United States |
| Broadcast: |
Chris Weidman (+140)
Breakdown
Chris Weidman vs. Kelvin Gastelum
I think Weidman should be a -170 betting favorite heading into this five-round middleweight main event so I definitely see value in him at his current offering price tag of +140. Weidman is a premiere pressure fighter who steadily works his way into the pocket. Once he grabs a hold of you, his ground control is pretty good and he has a tight head-pressure game, and can work ferocious ground and pound. He will have a size advantage over Gastelum, including a seven-inch reach edge. The big difference in recent years has been his durability but I am expecting improved conditioning from Weidman and think he will have enough in the tank for five full rounds of action. I suspect Weidman comes out with a good gameplan and win this fight inside the distance. I see this as being Gastelum’s first real test at middleweight, and I don’t think he pass the test.
Stake: 7%
Prediction
| Chris Weidman | vs. | Kelvin Gastelum |
| +140 | Odds | -170 |
| 41.7% | Market % | 63.0% |
| 70.00% | Bet on Combat % | 30.00% |
| +28.3% | Inefficiency % | -33.0% |
| Chris Weidman - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | +140 |
| Risk: | $20000.00 |
| To Win: | $28000.00 |
| Outcome: | Win |
Outcome:
Chris Weidman defeats Kelvin Gastelum via Submission (arm-triangle choke) at 3:46 of round 3.
This fight play out just the way I had anticipated. While the majority of the betting public counted out Chris Weidman, I was confident that he would bounce back and win this fight.
Win
Jeremy Kennedy (-225)
Breakdown
Kyle Bochniak vs. Jeremy Kennedy
Stake: 5%
Prediction
| Kyle Bochniak | vs. | Jeremy Kennedy |
| +175 | Odds | -225 |
| 36.4% | Market % | 69.2% |
| 25.00% | Bet on Combat % | 75.00% |
| -11.4% | Inefficiency % | +5.8% |
| Jeremy Kennedy - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | -225 |
| Risk: | $10000.00 |
| To Win: | $4444.44 |
| Outcome: | Win |
Outcome:
Jeremy Kennedy defeats Kyle Bochniak via Decision (unanimous) (30-27, 30-27, 29-28).