UFC on Fox: Shevchenko vs. Pena
| Sport: | MMA |
| Promotion: | UFC |
| Date: | Jan. 28, 2017 |
| Venue: | Pepsi Center |
| City: | Denver, Colorado, United States |
| Broadcast: |
Francis Ngannou wins by TKO/KO (-190)
Breakdown
Francis Ngannou vs Andrei Arlovski
For this fight I will be taking Ngannou to win via TKO/KO at -190 odds (bet $190 to win $100) this is your typical young stud vs aging veteran where they try to build the young stud resume by giving him someone with a name he can build off of. Ngannou is one inch taller, has a 6 inch reach advantage, younger, hits hard, and has ground skills. I feel Arlovski has slowed down at this point and his chin is very much in question up to this point. Anything can happen at heavyweight but it's Ngannou time to shine and I feel he will win by devastating fashion and I'll be shocked to see if Arlovski will even make it past the first round. Ngannou wins by TKO/KO in the first round.
Stake: 3%
Prediction
| Francis Ngannou wins by TKO/KO - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | -190 |
| Risk: | $5000.00 |
| To Win: | $2631.58 |
| Outcome: | Win |
Outcome:
Francis Ngannou defeats Andrei Arlovski via TKO (punches) at 1:31 of round 1.
Win
Jorge Masvidal (+140)
Breakdown
Donald Cerrone vs. Jorge Masvidal
I believe Jorge Masvidal's superior striking and footwork is going to be too much for Donald Cerrone. After several slip decisions, I also think Jorge is going to pull the trigger and finish this fight inside the distance.
Stake: 7%
Prediction
| Donald Cerrone | vs. | Jorge Masvidal |
| -160 | Odds | +140 |
| 61.5% | Market % | 41.7% |
| 25.00% | Bet on Combat % | 75.00% |
| -36.5% | Inefficiency % | +33.3% |
| Jorge Masvidal - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | +140 |
| Risk: | $17150.00 |
| To Win: | $24010.00 |
| Outcome: | Win |
Outcome:
Jorge Masvidal defeats Donald Cerrone via TKO (punches) at 1:00 of round 2.
Win
Jason Knight (-125)
Breakdown
Alex Caceres vs. Jason Knight
Stake: 7%
Prediction
| Alex Caceres | vs. | Jason Knight |
| +110 | Odds | -125 |
| 47.6% | Market % | 55.6% |
| 35.00% | Bet on Combat % | 65.00% |
| -12.6% | Inefficiency % | +9.4% |
| Jason Knight - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | -125 |
| Risk: | $17500.00 |
| To Win: | $14000.00 |
| Outcome: | Win |
Outcome:
Jason Knight defeats Alex Caceres via Submission (rear-naked choke) at 4:21 of round 2.
Win
Marcos Rogerio De Lima (-130)
Breakdown
Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Jeremy Kimball
Stake: 5%
Prediction
| Marcos Rogerio de Lima | vs. | Jeremy Kimball |
| -130 | Odds | +110 |
| 56.5% | Market % | 47.6% |
| 70.00% | Bet on Combat % | 25.00% |
| +13.5% | Inefficiency % | -22.6% |
| Marcos Rogerio De Lima - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | -130 |
| Risk: | $7000.00 |
| To Win: | $5384.62 |
| Outcome: | Win |
Outcome:
Marco Rogerio De Lima defeats Julia Pena via Submission (armbar) at 4:29 of round 2.