UFC on Fox: Johnson vs. Bader

Sport: MMA
Promotion: UFC
Date: Jan. 30, 2016
Venue: Prudential Center
City: Newark, New Jersey, United States
Broadcast:
Parlay Bet

Anthony Johnson (-269) Olivier Aubin-Mercier (-280) - (-116)

Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira (UFC on Fox 18: Johnson vs. Bader)
Anthony Johnson vs. Ryan Bader (UFC on Fox 18: Johnson vs. Bader)

Breakdown

Anthony Johnson vs. Ryan Bader

I can't see Bader being able to waether the storm of Johnson he is just too powerful on the feet. I don't think Bader is good enough defensively so Johnson most likely dusts him in the first 2 rounds and wins via KO.

 

Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Carlos Diego Ferreira

OAM should be able to win the scrambles and not get wrestled here to keep the fight standing where I think he is the better striker and will land on Ferreira who doesn't have good stand up. OAM out points Ferreira here to win a decision.

Stake:

Prediction

Anthony Johnson (-269) Olivier Aubin-Mercier (-280) - Parlay Bet
Odds:-116
Risk:$1160.00
To Win:$1000.00
Outcome:Loss

Outcome:

Anthony Johnson defeats Ryan Bader via KO (punches) at 1:26 of round 1.

Carlos Diego Ferreira defeats Olivier Aubin Mercier via Decision (unanimous) (29-28, 29-28, 30-27).

Loss

Straight Bet

Anthony Johnson (-240)

Anthony Johnson vs. Ryan Bader

Breakdown

Anthony Johnson vs Ryan Bader

I can't see Bader being able to waether the storm of Johnson he is just too powerful on the feet. I don't think Bader is good enough defensively so Johnson most likely dusts him in the first 2 rounds and wins via KO.

Anthony Johnson is our most "sure" bet of the night as we parlay him with Olivier Aubin-Mercier. Johnson's power and striking accuracy won't be a good match with Bader. I expect this fight won't go to the distance and we may add a play on the under +125 right now.

Stake: 10%

Prediction

Anthony Johnson vs. Ryan Bader
-240 Odds +220
70.6% Market % 31.3%
75.00% Bet on Combat % 25.00%
+4.4% Inefficiency % -6.3%
Anthony Johnson - Straight Bet
Odds:-240
Risk:$12000.00
To Win:$5000.00
Outcome:Win

Outcome:

Anthony Johnson defeats Ryan Bader via KO (punches) at 1:26 of round 1.

Win

Straight Bet

Sage Northcutt (-250)

Sage Northcutt vs. Andrew Holbrook

Breakdown

Sage Northcutt vs Bryan Barberena

Sage gets a opponent where he should win because they are trying to build him up. Barberena is very hittable against aggressive strikers and Barberena doesn't compare to Sage on the feet. Sage should be able to fend off any take downs as well since Barberena isn't that good at wrestling. Sage wins via TKO.

Stake: 3%

Prediction

Sage Northcutt vs. Andrew Holbrook
-290 Odds +260
74.4% Market % 27.8%
70.00% Bet on Combat % 30.00%
-4.4% Inefficiency % +2.2%
Sage Northcutt - Straight Bet
Odds:-250
Risk:$2500.00
To Win:$1000.00
Outcome:Loss

Outcome:

Bryan Barberena defeats Sage Northcutt via Submission (arm-triangle choke) at 3:06, round 2.

Loss

Straight Bet

Dustin Ortiz (-210)

Dustin Ortiz vs. Wilson Reis

Breakdown

Dustin Ortiz vs Wilson Reis

Ortiz has more tools to win and will be able to wear down Reis over the course of a 3 round fight. The pace of Ortiz will be a big factor which ultimately gives him the edge with scrambles and his wrestling. This is clearly Dustin Ortiz fight to lose. I see him winning a clear unanimous decision. Ortiz by decision.

Stake: 3%

 

Prediction

Dustin Ortiz vs. Wilson Reis
-210 Odds +190
67.7% Market % 34.5%
75.00% Bet on Combat % 25.00%
+7.3% Inefficiency % -9.5%
Dustin Ortiz - Straight Bet
Odds:-210
Risk:$2100.00
To Win:$1000.00
Outcome:Loss

Outcome:

Wilson Reis defeats Dustin Ortiz via Decision (unanimous) (30-27, 30-27, 30-27).

Loss

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