UFC on Fox: Johnson vs. Bader

Sport: | MMA |
Promotion: | UFC |
Date: | Jan. 30, 2016 |
Venue: | Prudential Center |
City: | Newark, New Jersey, United States |
Broadcast: |
Anthony Johnson (-269) Olivier Aubin-Mercier (-280) - (-116)
Breakdown
Anthony Johnson vs. Ryan Bader
I can't see Bader being able to waether the storm of Johnson he is just too powerful on the feet. I don't think Bader is good enough defensively so Johnson most likely dusts him in the first 2 rounds and wins via KO.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Carlos Diego Ferreira
OAM should be able to win the scrambles and not get wrestled here to keep the fight standing where I think he is the better striker and will land on Ferreira who doesn't have good stand up. OAM out points Ferreira here to win a decision.
Stake:
Prediction
Anthony Johnson (-269) Olivier Aubin-Mercier (-280) - Parlay Bet | |
Odds: | -116 |
Risk: | $1160.00 |
To Win: | $1000.00 |
Outcome: | Loss |
Outcome:
Anthony Johnson defeats Ryan Bader via KO (punches) at 1:26 of round 1.
Carlos Diego Ferreira defeats Olivier Aubin Mercier via Decision (unanimous) (29-28, 29-28, 30-27).
Loss
Anthony Johnson (-240)
Breakdown
Anthony Johnson vs Ryan Bader
I can't see Bader being able to waether the storm of Johnson he is just too powerful on the feet. I don't think Bader is good enough defensively so Johnson most likely dusts him in the first 2 rounds and wins via KO.
Anthony Johnson is our most "sure" bet of the night as we parlay him with Olivier Aubin-Mercier. Johnson's power and striking accuracy won't be a good match with Bader. I expect this fight won't go to the distance and we may add a play on the under +125 right now.
Stake: 10%
Prediction
Anthony Johnson | vs. | Ryan Bader |
-240 | Odds | +220 |
70.6% | Market % | 31.3% |
75.00% | Bet on Combat % | 25.00% |
+4.4% | Inefficiency % | -6.3% |
Anthony Johnson - Straight Bet | |
Odds: | -240 |
Risk: | $12000.00 |
To Win: | $5000.00 |
Outcome: | Win |
Outcome:
Anthony Johnson defeats Ryan Bader via KO (punches) at 1:26 of round 1.
Win
Sage Northcutt (-250)
Breakdown
Sage Northcutt vs Bryan Barberena
Sage gets a opponent where he should win because they are trying to build him up. Barberena is very hittable against aggressive strikers and Barberena doesn't compare to Sage on the feet. Sage should be able to fend off any take downs as well since Barberena isn't that good at wrestling. Sage wins via TKO.
Stake: 3%
Prediction
Sage Northcutt | vs. | Andrew Holbrook |
-290 | Odds | +260 |
74.4% | Market % | 27.8% |
70.00% | Bet on Combat % | 30.00% |
-4.4% | Inefficiency % | +2.2% |
Sage Northcutt - Straight Bet | |
Odds: | -250 |
Risk: | $2500.00 |
To Win: | $1000.00 |
Outcome: | Loss |
Outcome:
Bryan Barberena defeats Sage Northcutt via Submission (arm-triangle choke) at 3:06, round 2.
Loss
Dustin Ortiz (-210)
Breakdown
Dustin Ortiz vs Wilson Reis
Ortiz has more tools to win and will be able to wear down Reis over the course of a 3 round fight. The pace of Ortiz will be a big factor which ultimately gives him the edge with scrambles and his wrestling. This is clearly Dustin Ortiz fight to lose. I see him winning a clear unanimous decision. Ortiz by decision.
Stake: 3%
Prediction
Dustin Ortiz | vs. | Wilson Reis |
-210 | Odds | +190 |
67.7% | Market % | 34.5% |
75.00% | Bet on Combat % | 25.00% |
+7.3% | Inefficiency % | -9.5% |
Dustin Ortiz - Straight Bet | |
Odds: | -210 |
Risk: | $2100.00 |
To Win: | $1000.00 |
Outcome: | Loss |
Outcome:
Wilson Reis defeats Dustin Ortiz via Decision (unanimous) (30-27, 30-27, 30-27).