UFC on Fox: Holm vs. Shevchenko
| Sport: | MMA |
| Promotion: | UFC |
| Date: | July 23, 2016 |
| Venue: | United Center |
| City: | Chicago, Illinois, United States |
| Broadcast: |
Fight goes the distance (-160)
Breakdown
Holly Holm vs. Valentina Shevchenko
I am expecting Holm to beat Shevchenko as we already bet her straight at -160. However, after seeing the line moved so much in the last couple days, I decided to edge our straight bet with a prop 'Fight goes the distance' in the event Holly doesn't show up like we are expecting her to perform. I feel Holm has everything to get back the belt but she seems so nervous at the weigh-in, it make me question her mental preparation.
Stake: 3%
Prediction
| Fight goes the distance - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | -160 |
| Risk: | $3000.00 |
| To Win: | $1875.00 |
| Outcome: | Win |
Outcome:
Valentina Shevchenko defeats Holly Holm via unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46).
Win
Holly Holm (-160)
Breakdown
Holly Holm vs. Valentina Shevchenko
After a brutal submission lose to Miesha Tate, I am expecting Holm to come back with a much better game plan this time around. Her ability to keep distance with her jab and leg kicks should be enough to win rounds. The movement of Holly will be the x factor in this fight and I believe her footwork is better than Shevchenko. Holm will press the action more and throw more volume which in turn makes more chances to score on the judges cards. Holm out strikes Shevchenko to win a decision. As with every play we released, I feel confident enough to bet Holm at this very cheap price but not much more than 2%.
Stake: 2%
Prediction
| Holly Holm | vs. | Valentina Shevchenko |
| -160 | Odds | +140 |
| 61.5% | Market % | 41.7% |
| 70.00% | Bet on Combat % | 30.00% |
| +8.5% | Inefficiency % | -11.7% |
| Holly Holm - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | -160 |
| Risk: | $1600.00 |
| To Win: | $1000.00 |
| Outcome: | Loss |
Outcome:
Valentina Shevchenko defeats Holly Holm via unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46).
Loss
Edson Barboza (-190)
Breakdown
Edson Barboza vs. Gilbert Melendez
I think we're about to see the best version of Barboza in this fight against Melendez. Don't be surprise to see him KO Gilbert by a flashy technique on the feet.
Stake: 7%
Prediction
| Edson Barboza | vs. | Gilbert Melendez |
| -190 | Odds | +165 |
| 65.5% | Market % | 37.7% |
| 75.00% | Bet on Combat % | 25.00% |
| +9.5% | Inefficiency % | -12.7% |
| Edson Barboza - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | -190 |
| Risk: | $9500.00 |
| To Win: | $5000.00 |
| Outcome: | Win |
Outcome:
Edson Barboza defeats Gilbert Melendez via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28).