UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till

Sport: MMA
Promotion: UFC
Date: May 27, 2018
Venue: Echo Arena
City: Liverpool, England
Broadcast: Fox Sport 1
Straight Bet

Stephen Thompson (+105)

Darren Till vs. Stephen Thompson

Breakdown

Darren Till vs. Stephen Thompson

I think Wonderboy is going to stick and move, picks his spots well and dictating the tempo of the fight. Till isn’t ready in my view. Stephen Thompson by unanimous decision.

Stake: 5%

Prediction

Darren Till vs. Stephen Thompson
-110 Odds +105
52.4% Market % 48.8%
30.00% Bet on Combat % 70.00%
-22.4% Inefficiency % +21.2%
Stephen Thompson - Straight Bet
Odds:+105
Risk:$10000.00
To Win:$10500.00
Outcome:Loss

Outcome:

Darren Till defeats Stephen Thompson via Decision (unanimous) (48-47, 49-46, 49-46).

The bout was a technical, tactical one. Not many strikes landed over the five rounds. Till was in pursuit throughout, with Thompson evading and sometimes countering. Thompson landed the harder, cleaner shots in the first round and Till did a little better in the second. The third and fourth were incredibly close, they could have gone either way but the numbers showed Thompson out striking Till and Till exploded in the fifth, dropping Thompson with the most significant action of the bout.

I can't figure out how Darren Till won such a decisive decision over Stephen Thompson. I had Thompson winning four of the five rounds, only losing the fifth because he got dropped. Wonderboy fought his fight just like I predicted, and Till was hesitating over and over again. Yet somehow, Till got two 49-46's and a 48-47. I don't get it. The rounds were close, but I thought he landed the much cleaner shots throughout the first 20 minutes and Till seemed a bit gunshy. I thought Darren Till fought okay. But he didn't win that fight at all.

I feel bad for Stephen Thompson who got robbed by the judges tonight. I should have factored in the UK hometown judging more than I did as I have seen some crazy hometown decisions over there before.

For consolation to those that bet Wonderboy, that was a good value bet if you got him above evens. All great pro bettors would have taken that bet every day of the week. Don't get discouraged, good bets can lose.

 

 

Loss

Straight Bet

Nordine Taleb (-190)

Claudio Henrique da Silva vs. Nordine Taleb

Breakdown

Claudio Henrique Da Silva vs. Nordine Taleb

Taleb is an underrated fighter and Silva hasn’t fought in almost four years. Nordine Taleb by unanimous decision.

Stake: 5%

Prediction

Claudio Henrique da Silva vs. Nordine Taleb
+160 Odds -190
38.5% Market % 65.5%
25.00% Bet on Combat % 75.00%
-13.5% Inefficiency % +9.5%
Nordine Taleb - Straight Bet
Odds:-190
Risk:$10000.00
To Win:$5263.16
Outcome:Loss

Outcome:

Claudio Henrique defeats Nordine Taled via Submission (rear-naked choke) at 4:31 of round 1.

No one was giving Silva much of a chance in this fight after a four year absence from the cage, but he proved the doubters wrong by getting a take down and taking control on the ground, forcing Taleb to give up his back, and then squeezing in an over the chin choke. Taleb looked lost on the ground and his sub defense wasn't there.

Loss

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