UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw
| Sport: | MMA |
| Promotion: | UFC |
| Date: | Jan. 19, 2019 |
| Venue: | Barclays Center |
| City: | Brooklyn, New York, United States |
| Broadcast: | ESPN+ |
Joseph Benavidez (-220)
Breakdown
Joseph Benavidez vs. Dustin Ortiz
It’s been over four years since Joseph Benavidez won a convincing unanimous decision over Dustin Ortiz. Fights between elite flyweights tend to be coin tosses; however, given what we saw in their first fight, so long as you don’t think Benavidez is experiencing a significant decline, there’s reason to expect a similar outcome in this rematch. Benavidez’ speed will give him the advantage, which may see Ortiz shoot in for takedowns after a feeling out process, but it may not be enough. Look for Benavidez to consistently beat Ortiz to the punch en route to another decision nod. This bet was also released on Twitter as a free prediction.
Stake: 5%
Prediction
| Joseph Benavidez | vs. | Dustin Ortiz |
| -220 | Odds | +200 |
| 68.8% | Market % | 33.3% |
| 75.00% | Bet on Combat % | 25.00% |
| +6.2% | Inefficiency % | -8.3% |
| Joseph Benavidez - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | -220 |
| Risk: | $25000.00 |
| To Win: | $11363.64 |
| Outcome: | Win |
Outcome:
Joseph Benavidez defeats Dustin Ortiz via Decision (unanimous) (29-28, 29-28, 29-28).
Benavidez scored an impressive victory over Dustin Ortiz on Saturday night’s UFC Brooklyn main card, outworking him for 15 minutes and earning 29-28 scores across the board for a unanimous decision. Benavidez set the tone in the opening round by outgrappling Ortiz from the jump. In case there was any doubt who won the round, Benavidez dropped Ortiz with a big left hand late. Ortiz had his moments in the fight, including a rear-naked choke in the closing seconds of the second round, but Benavidez’s wrestling skills held up, scoring six takedowns over the course of the bout. With the victory, Benavidez (27-5) has now won two in a row and eight of his past nine, a stretch which includes a victory over current 125-pound champion Henry Cejudo.
Win
Alexander Hernandez (-165)
Breakdown
Alexander Hernandez vs. Donald Cerrone
This man can seriously fight. He will have the speed, power and athleticism advantage over Cerrone. I see Hernandez trying to clinch, dirty box and use elbows, and knees to the body. Unless Cerrone can pull off a submission out of nowhere I don't think he wins this one. He's at a reach and speed disadvantage.
Stake: 5%
Prediction
| Alexander Hernandez | vs. | Donald Cerrone |
| -165 | Odds | +147 |
| 62.3% | Market % | 40.5% |
| 75.00% | Bet on Combat % | 25.00% |
| +12.7% | Inefficiency % | -15.5% |
| Alexander Hernandez - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | -165 |
| Risk: | $15000.00 |
| To Win: | $9090.91 |
| Outcome: | Loss |
Outcome:
Donald Cerrone defeats Alexander Hernandez via KO (head kick and punches) at 3:43 of round 2.
I am very surprised about the result of this fight. I thought Hernandez speed, power and athleticism would have been enough to beat Cerrone, but I was wrong. Alexander started out nicely with the upper cut when he change level and hit the upper cut, but after he got hit a few times he tried to use his athleticism and speed to land his strikes without proper set ups. In my opinion that's when he became predictable and an easy target. I truly believe he was looking past Donald in this fight. Still potential there, now we get to see what he does with it from here on.