UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett

Sport: MMA
Promotion: UFC
Date: Sept. 3, 2016
Venue: Barclaycard Arena
City: Hamburg, Germany
Broadcast:
Parlay Bet

Rustam Khabilov (-325) Ashlee Evans-Smith (-250) - (-120)

Rustam Khabilov vs. Leandro Silva (UFC Fight Night 93: Arlovski vs. Barnett)
Ashlee Evans-Smith vs. Veronica Macedo (UFC Fight Night 93: Arlovski vs. Barnett)

Breakdown

Rustam Khabilov vs. Leandro Silva

For breakdown, see the straight bet.

Ashlee Evans-Smith vs. Veronica Macedo

Ashlee Evans-Smith is a 4 time All-American Collegiate wrestler. She is super tough and has a great chin. Although she didn't showcase her wrestling talents in her last fight against Reneau, she wanted to strike with Reneau because she knew how dangerous she was in BJJ.

Veronica Macedo is a late replacement for Germaine De Randamie and got the news 2 weeks ago. She has been training MMA since she was 8 but only started her pro career 6 Months ago and has compiled a record of 5-0-1. Her grappling is her main strength, having an advantage in BJJ against all her opponents thus far. She has beaten very low level opponents and is also undersized for Bantamweight, she plans to move down to straw weight in the future. I just feels like she’s taking this one to get into the UFC.

Evans-Smith had a full training camp and will be the larger woman in the cage with the height and reach advantage. I see Ashlee Evans-Smith put the pressure on and out volume Macedo on the feet for a TKO victory or a clear cut decision.

Stake: 3%

Prediction

Rustam Khabilov (-325) Ashlee Evans-Smith (-250) - Parlay Bet
Odds:-120
Risk:$9600.00
To Win:$8000.00
Outcome:Win

Outcome:

Ashlee Evans-Smith defeats Veronica Macedo via TKO (elbows) at 3:14 of round 3.

Rustam Khabilov defeats Leandro via Decision (unanimous) (29-28, 29-28, 30-27).

 

Win

Prop Bet

Gustaffson Points Handicap -3 1/2 (-350)

Alexander Gustafsson vs. Jan Blachowicz

Breakdown

Alexander Gustaffson vs Jan Blachowicz

In this fight there is a big difference in skill. Gus basically out-skills Jan everywhere and has a bigger heart and a better gas tank. All the tough fights Gus has been in this fight is tailor made for him to come back and get a win. I am glad Gus is returning and is getting a tune up fight because the guy has been in some wars vs some very tough fighters. Jan's striking is very decent but it is only effective vs stationary targets and Gus is far from stationary and has good footwork and won't allow him self to be stationary in front of Jan. Gus is just the better overall fighter, he has the reach, athleticism, length, and the better experience vs top level fighters. Since Gus is practically better everywhere the play I will be taking is Alexander Gustaffson Points Handicap -3 1/2 at -350 odds and betting 5% of your bankroll. I really do think Gus dominates the fight and wins every round. A finish is also very likely, so just as long as Gus wins all three rounds or gets a finish this prop will cash and I find it highly likely it will. If this prop isn't available to you, taking Gus in a parlay, inside the distance, are still good bets that will likely cash as well. 

Stake: 5%

Prediction

Gustaffson Points Handicap -3 1/2 - Straight Bet
Odds:-350
Risk:$3500.00
To Win:$1000.00
Outcome:Win

Outcome:

Alexander Gustaffson defeats Jan Blachowicz via Decision (unanimous) (30-27, 30-27, 30-27).

Win

Straight Bet

Rustam Khabilov (-325)

Rustam Khabilov vs. Leandro Silva

Breakdown

Rustam Khabilov vs. Leandro Silva

I believe Khabilov is the superior mixed martial artist heading into this contest and I expect him to get the better of Silva on the feet and knock him out in the second round. 

We may add Khabilov in a parlay with Evans-Smith right after the weigh-in, so stay tuned. 

Stake: 5%

 

Prediction

Rustam Khabilov vs. Leandro Silva
-325 Odds +265
76.5% Market % 27.4%
77.00% Bet on Combat % 23.00%
+0.5% Inefficiency % -4.4%
Rustam Khabilov - Straight Bet
Odds:-325
Risk:$20000.00
To Win:$6153.85
Outcome:Win

Outcome:

Rustam Khabilov defeats Leandro via Decision (unanimous) (29-28, 29-28, 30-27).

I have to admit, this fight was a little scary right from the bell. We won but the Investment of 20K was a little bit too much.

Win

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