UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
| Sport: | MMA |
| Promotion: | UFC |
| Date: | Feb. 17, 2019 |
| Venue: | Talking Stick Resort Arena |
| City: | Phoenix, Arizona, United States |
| Broadcast: | ESPN |
Cynthia Calvillo (-240)
Breakdown
Cortney Casey vs. Cynthia Calvillo
Cynthia Calvillo is coming off a submission victory over Poliana Botelho at November’s UFC event in Argentina. She’s clearly a talented grappler and one of my favorite fighter. Casey’s takedown defense is really not good. It seems like recipe for disaster against Calvillo. While this could be a good test against Casey, she’ll probably be more inclined to use her striking as a means to set up takedowns and search for submissions. As long as Calvillo sticks to what she’s really good at, Casey is going to be submitted.
Stake: 3%
Prediction
| Cortney Casey | vs. | Cynthia Calvillo |
| +195 | Odds | -240 |
| 33.9% | Market % | 70.6% |
| 25.00% | Bet on Combat % | 75.00% |
| -8.9% | Inefficiency % | +4.4% |
| Cynthia Calvillo - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | -240 |
| Risk: | $15000.00 |
| To Win: | $6250.00 |
| Outcome: | Win |
Outcome:
Cynthia Calvillo defeats Cortney Casey via Decision (unanimous) (29-28, 29-28, 30-27).
Casey was generally the aggressor with her hands, but Calvillo was more effective with her counters in the early exchanges. Still, neither woman was able to land much of real consequence. As the fight unfolded, the two women found themselves in a similar routine. Calvillo took a few more chances with her punches, trying to flurry, but nothing ever really landed clean.
Win
Kron Gracie (-260)
Breakdown
Alex Caceres vs. Kron Gracie
Alex Caceres just makes too many awful decisions for me to trust him against a submission specialist like Kron Gracie. Caceres isn’t dangerous enough as a striker to feel like he can just KO Gracie. At some point this will hit the mat. Don’t be too surprised if it’s because Caceres takes it there.
Stake: 5%
Prediction
| Alex Caceres | vs. | Kron Gracie |
| +235 | Odds | -260 |
| 29.9% | Market % | 72.2% |
| 25.00% | Bet on Combat % | 75.00% |
| -4.9% | Inefficiency % | +2.8% |
| Kron Gracie - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | -260 |
| Risk: | $25000.00 |
| To Win: | $9615.38 |
| Outcome: | Win |
Outcome:
Kron Gracie defeats Alex Caceres via submission (rear-naked choke) at 2:06 of round 1.
Gracie’s win marks the family’s first in the octagon since his uncle Royce Gracie picked up three wins in a single night to claim a tournament victory at UFC 4 in December 1994.