UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
| Sport: | MMA |
| Promotion: | UFC |
| Date: | March 2, 2019 |
| Venue: | T-Mobile Arena |
| City: | Paradise, Nevada |
| Broadcast: | Pay-per-view |
Tyron Woodley (-145)
Breakdown
Tyron Woodley vs. Kamaru Usman
Usman has a slight height and reach advantage, but not enough to make it a factor. Usman has to beat Woodley with his wrestling, which is not on the same level of the champion. Usman will come out wrestling early and try to exhaust Tyron by the middle of the second. I see Woodley will engage in wrestling early then start using the exit to land big shots. It will become a slugfest and Usman will lose to Tyron's striking 8/10 times. Woodley is going to knock Usman out and cement his name as “The Greatest Welterweight of All Time”.
Stake: 3%
Prediction
| Tyron Woodley | vs. | Kamaru Usman |
| -145 | Odds | +135 |
| 59.2% | Market % | 42.6% |
| 65.00% | Bet on Combat % | 35.00% |
| +5.8% | Inefficiency % | -7.6% |
| Tyron Woodley - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | -145 |
| Risk: | $15000.00 |
| To Win: | $10344.83 |
| Outcome: | Loss |
Outcome:
Kamaru Usman defeats Tyron Woodley via Decision (unanimous) (50-44, 50-44, 50-45).
Loss
Ben Askren (-260)
Breakdown
Robbie Lawler vs. Ben Askren
Stake: 5%
Prediction
| Robbie Lawler | vs. | Ben Askren |
| +210 | Odds | -260 |
| 32.3% | Market % | 72.2% |
| 30.00% | Bet on Combat % | 70.00% |
| -2.3% | Inefficiency % | -2.2% |
| Ben Askren - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | -260 |
| Risk: | $25000.00 |
| To Win: | $9615.38 |
| Outcome: | Win |
Outcome:
Ben Askren defeats Robbie Lawler via Technical Submission (bulldog choke) at 3:20 of round 1.
Win
Pedro Munhoz (+144)
Breakdown
Cody Garbrandt vs. Pedro Munhoz
3%
Prediction
| Cody Garbrandt | vs. | Pedro Munhoz |
| -163 | Odds | +144 |
| 62.0% | Market % | 41.0% |
| 35.00% | Bet on Combat % | 65.00% |
| -27.0% | Inefficiency % | +24.0% |
| Pedro Munhoz - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | +144 |
| Risk: | $15000.00 |
| To Win: | $21600.00 |
| Outcome: | Win |
Outcome:
Pedro Munhoz defeats Cody Garbrandt via KO (punches) ay 4:51 of round 1.