UFC 234: Whittaker vs. Gastelum

Sport: MMA
Promotion: UFC
Date: Feb. 10, 2019
Venue: Rod Laver Arena
City: Melbourne, Australia
Broadcast: Pay-per-view
Straight Bet

Robert Whittaker (-230)

Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum

Breakdown

Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum

This weekend Kelvin Gastelum faces middleweight champion Robert Whittaker in UFC 234. Both fighters are similar, but Whittaker is on form and his unconventional striking style and use of kicks should be enough to carry the day.

Stake: 5%

Prediction

Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum
-230 Odds +187
69.7% Market % 34.8%
75.00% Bet on Combat % 25.00%
+5.3% Inefficiency % -9.8%
Robert Whittaker - Straight Bet
Odds:-230
Risk:$35000.00
To Win:$15217.39
Outcome:Push

Outcome:

Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum has been cancelled.

UFC Middleweight Championship bout between current champion Robert Whittaker and Kelvin Gastelum was expected to headline the event. However, Whittaker pulled out of the event a few hours prior due to an abdominal hernia, and will undergo surgery later in the day. As a result of the last-minute change, the co-main event between Israel Adesanya and Anderson Silva is expected to serve as the main event.

Push

Straight Bet

Israel Adesanya (-450)

Israel Adesanya vs. Anderson Silva

Breakdown

Israel Adesanya vs. Anderson Silva

Silva can surprise Adesanya by landing some good shots early, but I doubt he can do enough to actually win this. In fact, I think Adesanya just runs through him the moment he chooses to step on the gas pedal. Silva is the most talented striker Adesanya has faced in mixed martial arts. Silva is already 43-years-old after all. I think this will be even closer than what the odds say, but I believe Adesanya is just slightly better just about everywhere, so he should take this.

Stake: 7%

Prediction

Israel Adesanya vs. Anderson Silva
-450 Odds +400
81.8% Market % 20.0%
75.00% Bet on Combat % 25.00%
-6.8% Inefficiency % +5.0%
Israel Adesanya - Straight Bet
Odds:-450
Risk:$35000.00
To Win:$7777.78
Outcome:Win

Outcome:

Israel Adesanya defeats Anderson Silva Decision (unanimous) (29-28, 30-27, 30-27).

In our third bets of the evening, undefeated middleweight contender Israel Adesanya didn’t finish the former champ Anderson Silva, but he did enough to convince the judges to award him a unanimous decision. Originally scheduled for a co-feature bout at UFC 234 on Saturday night, Israel Adesanya and Anderson Silva became the headline bout when Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum was scrapped due to Gastelum’s hernia. Adesanya lived up to his hype in earning a unanimous decision on scores of 29-28, 30-27, and 30-27. It was also enough to earn the duo some bonus bucks, as the bout was named Fight of the Night, earning each competitor an extra $50,000.

Win

Straight Bet

Montana De La Rosa (-190)

Montana De La Rosa vs. Nadia Kassem

Breakdown

Montana De La Rosa vs. Nadia Kassem

I think this is a pretty clear-cut result unless Kassem has shown huge improvement from her win against Alex Chambers. De La Rosa is bigger, has a much better striking game, and is a better grappler. She also has 13 pro-fights against the undefeated Nadia Kassem (6-0). Both women are extremely young and thus could show shocking improvements from fight to fight, but I see De La Rosa use her grappling prowess for her fourth consecutive submission win against the hometown fighter.

Stake: 3%

Prediction

Montana De La Rosa vs. Nadia Kassem
-190 Odds +165
65.5% Market % 37.7%
70.00% Bet on Combat % 30.00%
+4.5% Inefficiency % -7.7%
Montana De La Rosa - Straight Bet
Odds:-190
Risk:$15000.00
To Win:$7894.74
Outcome:Win

Outcome:

Montana De La Rosa defeats Nadia Kassem via Verbal Submission (armbar) at 2:37 of round 2.

In a women’s flyweight contest, Montana De La Rosa showcased her superior ground game, trapping Nadia Kassem in a triangle choke before transitioning to a belly-down armbar to force a verbal submission. The Texas native completely dominated the opening round, perhaps to the point of a 10-8 round, as she did everything except submit Kassem on the mat.

Win

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