UFC 234: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
| Sport: | MMA |
| Promotion: | UFC |
| Date: | Feb. 10, 2019 |
| Venue: | Rod Laver Arena |
| City: | Melbourne, Australia |
| Broadcast: | Pay-per-view |
Robert Whittaker (-230)
Breakdown
Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum
This weekend Kelvin Gastelum faces middleweight champion Robert Whittaker in UFC 234. Both fighters are similar, but Whittaker is on form and his unconventional striking style and use of kicks should be enough to carry the day.
Stake: 5%
Prediction
| Robert Whittaker | vs. | Kelvin Gastelum |
| -230 | Odds | +187 |
| 69.7% | Market % | 34.8% |
| 75.00% | Bet on Combat % | 25.00% |
| +5.3% | Inefficiency % | -9.8% |
| Robert Whittaker - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | -230 |
| Risk: | $35000.00 |
| To Win: | $15217.39 |
| Outcome: | Push |
Outcome:
Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum has been cancelled.
A UFC Middleweight Championship bout between current champion Robert Whittaker and Kelvin Gastelum was expected to headline the event. However, Whittaker pulled out of the event a few hours prior due to an abdominal hernia, and will undergo surgery later in the day. As a result of the last-minute change, the co-main event between Israel Adesanya and Anderson Silva is expected to serve as the main event.
Push
Israel Adesanya (-450)
Breakdown
Israel Adesanya vs. Anderson Silva
Silva can surprise Adesanya by landing some good shots early, but I doubt he can do enough to actually win this. In fact, I think Adesanya just runs through him the moment he chooses to step on the gas pedal. Silva is the most talented striker Adesanya has faced in mixed martial arts. Silva is already 43-years-old after all. I think this will be even closer than what the odds say, but I believe Adesanya is just slightly better just about everywhere, so he should take this.
Stake: 7%
Prediction
| Israel Adesanya | vs. | Anderson Silva |
| -450 | Odds | +400 |
| 81.8% | Market % | 20.0% |
| 75.00% | Bet on Combat % | 25.00% |
| -6.8% | Inefficiency % | +5.0% |
| Israel Adesanya - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | -450 |
| Risk: | $35000.00 |
| To Win: | $7777.78 |
| Outcome: | Win |
Outcome:
Israel Adesanya defeats Anderson Silva Decision (unanimous) (29-28, 30-27, 30-27).
Win
Montana De La Rosa (-190)
Breakdown
Montana De La Rosa vs. Nadia Kassem
I think this is a pretty clear-cut result unless Kassem has shown huge improvement from her win against Alex Chambers. De La Rosa is bigger, has a much better striking game, and is a better grappler. She also has 13 pro-fights against the undefeated Nadia Kassem (6-0). Both women are extremely young and thus could show shocking improvements from fight to fight, but I see De La Rosa use her grappling prowess for her fourth consecutive submission win against the hometown fighter.
Stake: 3%
Prediction
| Montana De La Rosa | vs. | Nadia Kassem |
| -190 | Odds | +165 |
| 65.5% | Market % | 37.7% |
| 70.00% | Bet on Combat % | 30.00% |
| +4.5% | Inefficiency % | -7.7% |
| Montana De La Rosa - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | -190 |
| Risk: | $15000.00 |
| To Win: | $7894.74 |
| Outcome: | Win |
Outcome:
Montana De La Rosa defeats Nadia Kassem via Verbal Submission (armbar) at 2:37 of round 2.
In a women’s flyweight contest, Montana De La Rosa showcased her superior ground game, trapping Nadia Kassem in a triangle choke before transitioning to a belly-down armbar to force a verbal submission. The Texas native completely dominated the opening round, perhaps to the point of a 10-8 round, as she did everything except submit Kassem on the mat.