UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor

Sport:	MMA
Promotion:	UFC
Date:	Oct. 6, 2018
Venue:	T-Mobile Arena
City:	Las Vegas
Broadcast:	Pay-per-view

Straight Bet

Khabib Nurmagomedov (-155)

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Conor McGregor

Breakdown

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Conor McGregor

Nurmagomedov (26-0) is 30 and he’s 10-0 in the UFC. McGregor (21-3) is 30 and he’s 9-1 in the UFC. I’ve been going back-and-forth on this fight since it was announced. Both fighters have gaps where the other excels. I like Nurmagomedov’s wrestling and think he close the distance, take down McGregor, and mauled him on the ground repeatedly just like he has done to everyone else.

Stake: 10%

Prediction

Khabib Nurmagomedov	vs.	Conor McGregor
-155	Odds	+135
60.8%	Market %	42.6%
65.00%	Bet on Combat %	35.00%
+4.2%	Inefficiency %	-7.6%

Khabib Nurmagomedov - Straight Bet
Odds:	-155
Risk:	$250000.00
To Win:	$161290.32
Outcome:	Win

Outcome:

Khabib Nurmagomedov defeats Conor McGregor via Submission (neck crank) at 3:03 of round 4.

This was a pretty standard Khabib Nurmagomedov fight. Time and time again, the Dagestani has proven himself able to land the takedown just about whenever he truly commits to it. McGregor did some things well to defend the shot, but he simply could not stop the takedown. Once on top, Nurmagomedov’s chain wrestling and positional control are suffocating. McGregor didn’t do terribly. On the mat, he defended himself far better than past opponents, However, he was worn down quickly, which left him unable to capitalize when he did exchange with the Dagestani athlete.

Win

Straight Bet

Dominick Reyes (-180)

Ovince St. Preux vs. Dominick Reyes

Breakdown

Ovince St-Preux vs. Dominick Reyes

Reyes (9-0) is 28 and he’s 3-0 in the UFC. He’s powerful, athletic, and his striking is very sharp. I believe he is the better mixed martial artist and I see him knocking out St-Preux within the first round.

Stake: 7%

Prediction

Ovince St. Preux	vs.	Dominick Reyes
+145	Odds	-180
40.8%	Market %	64.3%
35.00%	Bet on Combat %	65.00%
-5.8%	Inefficiency %	+0.7%

Dominick Reyes - Straight Bet
Odds:	-180
Risk:	$18000.00
To Win:	$10000.00
Outcome:	Win

Outcome:

Dominick Reyes defeats Ovince St-Preux via Decision (unanimous) (30-27, 30-27, 30-27).