UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor

Sport: MMA
Promotion: UFC
Date: Nov. 12, 2016
Venue: Madison Square Garden
City: New York, New York, United States
Broadcast:
Parlay Bet

Frankie Edgar  Joanna Jedrzejczyk - (-164)

Frankie Edgar vs. Jeremy Stephens (UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor)
Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor)

Prediction

Frankie Edgar  Joanna Jedrzejczyk - Parlay Bet
Odds:-164
Risk:$7000.00
To Win:$4268.29
Outcome:Win

Outcome:

Frankie Edgar defeats Jeremy Stephens via Decision (unanimous) (30-27, 30-27, 29-28).

Joanna Jedrzejczyk defeats Karolina Kowalkiewicz via Decision (unanimous) (49-46, 49-46, 49-46).

 

Win

Straight Bet

Conor McGregor (-120)

Eddie Alvarez vs. Conor McGregor

Breakdown

Conor McGregor vs. Eddie Alvarez

From a purely technical perspective, Eddie does get hit a lot while throwing wild hooks and coming up against a precise, ko artist and dynamic striker like Conor, that won’t be a good recipe for success. Also, Eddie’s wrestling credentials are nowhere near Chad Mendes’s but I expect him to still shoot a lot. I don’t expect Eddie Alvarez to want to trade strikes on the feet with Conor. I think Conor catches Eddie in or out of a clinch attempt and ends it. Regarding his antics outside the cage, I wouldn’t put much weight one way or the other. At -120 odds, this is a value bet. 

Stake: 5% 

*Just like the Tyron Woodley vs Stephen Thompson fight, we may add more money as the line keep going to move in our favor.

Prediction

Eddie Alvarez vs. Conor McGregor
+105 Odds -120
48.8% Market % 54.5%
35.00% Bet on Combat % 65.00%
-13.8% Inefficiency % +10.5%
Conor McGregor - Straight Bet
Odds:-120
Risk:$12000.00
To Win:$10000.00
Outcome:Win

Outcome:

Conor McGregor defeats Eddie Alvarez via TKO (punches) at 3:04 of round 3.

Win

Straight Bet

Khabib Nurmagomedov Stake: 10% (-180)

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Michael Johnson

Prediction

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Michael Johnson
-180 Odds +165
64.3% Market % 37.7%
75.00% Bet on Combat % 25.00%
+10.7% Inefficiency % -12.7%
Khabib Nurmagomedov Stake: 10% - Straight Bet
Odds:-180
Risk:$18000.00
To Win:$10000.00
Outcome:Win

Outcome:

Win

Straight Bet

Stephen Thompson (-170)

Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson

Breakdown

Stephen Thompson vs. Tyron Woodley

I think Stephen Thompson should be a 4-to-1 betting favorite heading into this fight, which makes him a great bet at the current odds. Thompson is a significantly better striker than Tyron Woodley and has excellent takedown defence, which means that it’s going to be difficult for Woodley to take him down and keep him down. I see Thompson picking Woodley apart for 5 rounds en route for a unanimous decision. I called Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson’s last 7 fights, and I understand just how good he is.

Stake: 5%

*Following the weigh-in, we are going to add more money on Thompson, possibly our biggest bet of the year. Please stay tuned!

Prediction

Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson
+140 Odds -170
41.7% Market % 63.0%
25.00% Bet on Combat % 75.00%
-16.7% Inefficiency % +12.0%
Stephen Thompson - Straight Bet
Odds:-170
Risk:$12500.00
To Win:$7352.94
Outcome:Push

Outcome:

Tyron Woodley vs Stephen Thompson Draw (majority) (47-47, 47-47, 48-47).

All that stress for a push. Thompson should have been a winner but at least I get my money back. As I told many of you I put my money where my mouth is. Show me another bettor that bets figures like this and is a long term winner. There are none!

Push

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