UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
| Sport: | MMA |
| Promotion: | UFC |
| Date: | July 30, 2016 |
| Venue: | Philips Arena |
| City: | Atlanta, Georgia, United States |
| Broadcast: |
Jorge Masvidal (-217) Wilson Reis (-303) - (-106)
Breakdown
Ross Pearson vs. Jorge Masvidal
Ross has a speed and range disadvantage that I don't think he can overcome. You can easily say that Masvidal has the better boxing as well. Masvidal will pick Ross apart on the feet and win a decision.
Wilson Reis vs Hector Sandoval
Sandoval is undersized and not as strong as Reis. Reis will be able to use his wrestling and get a take down and will his great BJJ skills to find a submission.
Stake: 5%
Prediction
| Jorge Masvidal (-217) Wilson Reis (-303) - Parlay Bet | |
| Odds: | -106 |
| Risk: | $2120.00 |
| To Win: | $2000.00 |
| Outcome: | Win |
Outcome:
Jorge Masvidal defeats Ross Pearson via Decision (unanimous) (29-28, 29-28, 30-27).
Wilson Reis defeats Hector Sandoval via Submission (rear-naked choke) at 1:49 of round 1.
Win
Lawler vs. Woodley Inside the Distance (-190)
Breakdown
Robbie Lawler vs. Tyron Woodley
We have already bet Robbie Lawler straight at -140 for 1% stake. As I explained in my breakdown (see previous prediction), Tyron Woodley have a really good shot at knocking out Lawler. So we are edging this bet with a proposition 'Inside the Distance' as I expect this fight going under 2.5 round.
Stake: 5%
Prediction
| Robbie Lawler | vs. | Tyron Woodley |
| None | Odds | None |
| Lawler vs. Woodley Inside the Distance - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | -190 |
| Risk: | $3800.00 |
| To Win: | $2000.00 |
| Outcome: | Win |
Outcome:
Tyron Woodley defeats Robbie Lawler via KO (punches) at 2:12 of round 1.
Win
Robbie Lawler (-140)
Breakdown
Robbie Lawler vs. Tyron Woodley
Lawler is very methodical with his striking and it will be just a matter of time before he finds the chin of Woodley. Lawler also has great take down defense so it won't easy to take down Lawler. This fight will come down to Lawler being able to stop the takedown, which he should. But Woodley has big power but I expect him to gas in the championship rounds, if not well before. Make no mistake, Tyron Woodley is a live dog but I just can’t trust Woodley to pull this off, I expect Lawler to take his time and eventually TKO Woodley.
Prediction
| Robbie Lawler | vs. | Tyron Woodley |
| -140 | Odds | +120 |
| 58.3% | Market % | 45.5% |
| 60.00% | Bet on Combat % | 40.00% |
| +1.7% | Inefficiency % | -5.5% |
| Robbie Lawler - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | -140 |
| Risk: | $1400.00 |
| To Win: | $1000.00 |
| Outcome: | Loss |
Outcome:
Tyron Woodley defeats Robbie Lawler via KO (punches) at 2:12 of round 1.
Loss
Jorge Masvidal (-220)
Breakdown
Ross Pearson vs Jorge Masvidal
Ross has a speed and range disadvantage that I don't think he can overcome. You can easily say that Masvidal has the better boxing as well. Masvidal will pick Ross apart on the feet and win a decision.
Stake: 10%
Prediction
| Ross Pearson | vs. | Jorge Masvidal |
| -220 | Odds | +200 |
| 68.8% | Market % | 33.3% |
| 75.00% | Bet on Combat % | 25.00% |
| +6.2% | Inefficiency % | -8.3% |
| Jorge Masvidal - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | -220 |
| Risk: | $11000.00 |
| To Win: | $5000.00 |
| Outcome: | Win |
Outcome:
Jorge Masvidal defeats Ross Pearson via Decision (unanimous) (29-28, 29-28, 30-27).
Win
Wilson Reis (-300)
Breakdown
Wilson Reis vs Hector Sandoval
Sandoval is undersized and not as strong as Reis. Reis will be able to use his wrestling and get a take down and will his great BJJ skills to find a submission.
Stake: 5%
Prediction
| Wilson Reis | vs. | Hector Sandoval |
| -300 | Odds | +220 |
| 75.0% | Market % | 31.3% |
| 75.00% | Bet on Combat % | 25.00% |
| 0.0% | Inefficiency % | -6.3% |
| Wilson Reis - Straight Bet | |
| Odds: | -300 |
| Risk: | $3000.00 |
| To Win: | $1000.00 |
| Outcome: | Win |
Outcome:
Wilson Reis defeats Hector Sandoval via Submission (rear-naked choke) at 1:49 of round 1.